Conditional simulation of remotely sensed rainfall data using a non-Gaussian v-transformed copula     

Amir AghaKouchak  András Bárdossy  Emad Habib 《Advances in water resources》2010

Quantification of rainfall and its spatial and temporal variability is extremely important for reliable hydrological and meteorological modeling. While rain gauge measurements do not provide reasonable areal representation of rainfall, remotely sensed precipitation estimates offer much higher spatial resolution. However, uncertainties associated with remotely sensed rainfall estimates are not well quantified. This issue is important considering the fact that uncertainties in input rainfall are the main sources of error in hydrologic processes. Using an ensemble of rainfall estimates that resembles multiple realizations of possible true rainfall, one can assess uncertainties associated with remotely sensed rainfall data. In this paper, ensembles are generated by imposing rainfall error fields over remotely sensed rainfall estimates. A non-Gaussian copula-based model is introduced for simulation of rainfall error fields. The v-transformed copula is employed to describe the dependence structure of rainfall error estimates without the influence of the marginal distribution. Simulations using this model can be performed unconditionally or conditioned on ground reference measurements such that rain gauge data are honored at their locations. The presented model is implemented for simulation of rainfall ensembles across the Little Washita watershed, Oklahoma. The results indicate that the model generates rainfall fields with similar spatio-temporal characteristics and stochastic properties to those of observed rainfall data.  相似文献   

Estimation of tail dependence coefficient in rainfall accumulation fields     

Amir Aghakouchak  Grzegorz Ciach  Emad Habib 《Advances in water resources》2010

Extreme rainfall events are of particular importance due to their severe impacts on the economy, the environment and the society. Characterization and quantification of extremes and their spatial dependence structure may lead to a better understanding of extreme events. An important concept in statistical modeling is the tail dependence coefficient (TDC) that describes the degree of association between concurrent rainfall extremes at different locations. Accurate knowledge of the spatial characteristics of the TDC can help improve on the existing models of the occurrence probability of extreme storms. In this study, efficient estimation of the TDC in rainfall is investigated using a dense network of rain gauges located in south Louisiana, USA. The inter-gauge distances in this network range from about 1 km to 9 km. Four different nonparametric TDC estimators are implemented on samples of the rain gauge data and their advantages and disadvantages are discussed. Three averaging time-scales are considered: 1 h, 2 h and 3 h. The results indicate that a significant tail dependency may exist that cannot be ignored for realistic modeling of multivariate rainfall fields. Presence of a strong dependence among extremes contradicts with the assumption of joint normality, commonly used in hydrologic applications.  相似文献   

Assimilating satellite SST/SSH and in-situ T/S profiles with the Localized Weighted Ensemble Kalman Filter     

Meng Shen  Yan Chen  Pinqiang Wang  Weimin Zhang 《海洋学报(英文版)》2022,41(2):26-40

The Localized Weighted Ensemble Kalman Filter(LWEnKF) is a new nonlinear/non-Gaussian data assimilation(DA) method that can effectively alleviate the filter degradation problem faced by particle filtering, and it has great prospects for applications in geophysical models. In terms of operational applications, along-track sea surface height(AT-SSH), swath sea surface temperature(S-SST) and in-situ temperature and salinity(T/S) profiles are assimilated using the LWEnKF in the northern South China ...  相似文献   

中国农村聚落空心化问题实证研究   总被引：76，自引：4，他引：72  

王成新  姚士谋  陈彩虹 《地理科学》2005,25(3):257-262

城市和农村是两种主要的人类居住群落。在中国城市化迅速发展的进程中,广大农村却出现了日益严重的空心化问题。以山东省新泰市北公村为例,通过广泛的问卷调查和实地调研,总结了村落空心化发展的三个阶段,阐明了村落向心力与离心力失衡、经济发展迅速和观念意识落后、新房建设加速和规划管理薄弱等三大矛盾是村落空心化的内在机制,针对村落空心化对耕地资源、小康社会建设以及农村人居环境等带来的不利影响,站在科学发展观的角度,从管理、规划、基础设施建设等方面提出相应的对策措施。  相似文献   

RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN AUTUMN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE MODE AND THE STRENGTH OF SCS SUMMER MONSOON     

李东辉  张瑰  朱益民  谭言科  王学忠 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2007,13(1):29-32

Based on 1948 - 2004 monthly Reynolds Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis data, the relationships between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole Mode (IODM) and the strength of South China Sea (SCS) Summer Monsoon are investigated through the EOF and smooth correlation methods. The results are as the following. (1) There are two dominant modes of autumn SSTA over the tropical Indian Ocean. They are the uniformly signed basin-wide mode (USBM) and Indian Ocean dipole mode (IODM), respectively. The SSTA associated with USBM are prevailing decadal to interdecadal variability characterized by a unanimous pattern, while the IODM mainly represents interannual variability of SSTA. (2) When positive (negative) IODM exists over the tropical Indian Ocean during the preceding fall, the SCS summer monsoon will be weak (strong). The negative correlation between the interannual variability of IODM and that of SCS summer monsoon is significant during the warm phase of long-term trend but insignificant during the cool phase. (3) When the SCS summer monsoon is strong (weak), the IODM will be in its positive (negative) phase during the following fall season. The positive correlation between the interannual variability of SCS summer monsoon and that of IODM is significant during both the warm and cool phase of the long-term trend, but insignificant during the transition between the two phases.  相似文献   

磁宁静期核心等离子体层电子密度分布的统计研究          下载免费PDF全文

冯时  袁志刚  余雄东 《地球物理学报》2017,60(9):3301-3307

等离子体层已有数十年研究历史,但对其核心等离子体区域却一直没有一个相对准确的界限和模型定义.基于范阿伦辐射带卫星RBSP-A在2012年9月18日至2014年10月13日约两年的观测,我们统计研究了磁宁静期间核心等离子体层电子密度随磁地方时(MLT)及磁壳指数(L-value)的分布特征.发现了核心等离子体层电子密度在不同MLT条件下随L值的变化趋势几乎一致,但与以前的等离子体层经验模式计算的电子密度存在较大的偏差.在不同L值下电子密度随MLT的变化趋势也相差不大,而且随MLT存在明显的逐日和半日变化.最后我们获得了等离子体层电子密度随L值和MLT变化的经验公式.研究结果对空间等离子体层建模及研究具有重要的意义.  相似文献   

Integrating gravimetric and interferometric synthetic aperture radar data for enhancing reservoir history matching of carbonate gas and volatile oil reservoirs          下载免费PDF全文

Klemens Katterbauer  Santiago Arango  Shuyu Sun  Ibrahim Hoteit 《Geophysical Prospecting》2017,65(1):337-364

Reservoir history matching is assuming a critical role in understanding reservoir characteristics, tracking water fronts, and forecasting production. While production data have been incorporated for matching reservoir production levels and estimating critical reservoir parameters, the sparse spatial nature of this dataset limits the efficiency of the history matching process. Recently, gravimetry techniques have significantly advanced to the point of providing measurement accuracy in the microgal range and consequently can be used for the tracking of gas displacement caused by water influx. While gravity measurements provide information on subsurface density changes, i.e., the composition of the reservoir, these data do only yield marginal information about temporal displacements of oil and inflowing water. We propose to complement gravimetric data with interferometric synthetic aperture radar surface deformation data to exploit the strong pressure deformation relationship for enhancing fluid flow direction forecasts. We have developed an ensemble Kalman‐filter‐based history matching framework for gas, gas condensate, and volatile oil reservoirs, which synergizes time‐lapse gravity and interferometric synthetic aperture radar data for improved reservoir management and reservoir forecasts. Based on a dual state–parameter estimation algorithm separating the estimation of static reservoir parameters from the dynamic reservoir parameters, our numerical experiments demonstrate that history matching gravity measurements allow monitoring the density changes caused by oil–gas phase transition and water influx to determine the saturation levels, whereas the interferometric synthetic aperture radar measurements help to improve the forecasts of hydrocarbon production and water displacement directions. The reservoir estimates resulting from the dual filtering scheme are on average 20%–40% better than those from the joint estimation scheme, but require about a 30% increase in computational cost.  相似文献   

鄱阳湖碟形湖泊植物分解和水位变化对水体碳、氮浓度的叠加效应   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

张广帅  于秀波  刘宇  张欢  张全军  李雅  段后浪 《湖泊科学》2018,30(3):668-679

以鄱阳湖典型碟形湖泊——白沙湖为监测对象,开展水体有机碳(TOC)、总氮(TN)、铵态氮(NH_4~+-N)和硝态氮(NO_3~--N)浓度的年内动态变化的定位观测,结合在白沙湖开展的灰化薹草(Carex cinerascens)分解模拟实验和稳定同位素示踪技术,对薹草分解过程和水体营养盐浓度变化进行时间匹配,分析水体中颗粒态有机物(POM)的来源,并探讨水位变化和薹草分解对水体营养盐浓度的交互作用.结果表明,水体TOC、TN和NH_4~+-N浓度在枯水季1—4月明显高于其他月份;薹草在0~60 d具有最高的分解速率,鄱阳湖碟形湖泊洲滩湿地薹草分解起始时间为当年12月前后;水体POM与薹草活体和分解残体的δ~(13)C差异不显著,而与苦草和藻类具有显著性差异,说明薹草分解残体是水体中POM的主要来源;薹草分解过程明显影响湖泊水体TN、NH_4~+-N和TOC浓度变化;水位变化对湖泊水体NO_3~--N浓度变化效应最明显.  相似文献   

震源因素对尾波干涉提取经验格林函数的影响          下载免费PDF全文

冯旭平  王涛 《地球物理学报》2019,62(9):3408-3420

尾波干涉提取经验格林函数作为现今地震学一项重要的研究,其受震源因素的影响值得细致地探讨.本文通过模拟和实际数据的尾波干涉,系统性讨论了震源倾角、方位角和走向以及震中分布对于提取经验格林函数（主要是PKIKP²和PKⅡKP²震相）的影响.我们发现PKIKP²震相的平均信噪比随倾角的增大呈现先增大后减小的变化趋势,并在倾角约为45°时达到最大.基于稳相点分析,本文认为这种变化趋势是因为提取的PKIKP²震相主要贡献来源于近乎径向方向,而倾角为45°的倾滑型断层事件辐射出的P波能量在径向上最大.此外,断层走向对尾波干涉提取Rayleigh面波并无明显影响,而方位角的影响非常显著.当事件近似在台站对的大圆弧上时,尾波干涉才能提取清晰的Rayleigh面波,这与面波稳相区的空间分布一致.对于PKIKP²和PKⅡKP²震相,只有当事件分布与台站对大圆弧近垂直并且事件断层走向与线状台阵近平行时,才能提取清晰的波形.通过计算不同事件和台站分布的震源辐射能量,上述方位角和走向最有利于地核震相的提取.最后,震中分布对尾波干涉提取PKIKP²震相也有一定的影响：当震中与地心连线和PKIKP²震相射线路径之间的锐角夹角越小,并且震中距越小时,提取的地核震相的信噪比越高.  相似文献   

集合预报风场扰动的物理结构及演变特征          下载免费PDF全文

张瑜  时洋  周勃旸  马旭林 《大气科学学报》2022,45(2):268-279

初始扰动结构和振幅的合理性直接影响到集合预报的质量和整体性能,合理的初始扰动结构是确保集合预报扰动质量的关键.本文基于欧洲中期天气预报中心数据、我国T639全球集合预报系统以及GRAPES区域集合预报系统的预报场,针对模式初值不确定性,主要研究了风场初始扰动结构及其集合离散度、扰动能量等结构和演变特征,分析了集合预报风...  相似文献